A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
