Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
